The ‘bottom is in’: Why Tom Lee says the Iran ceasefire is the starting gun for a massive bitcoin rally

Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee is asking the bottom on the inventory market, a prediction that, if moral, would drift without extend into bitcoin , ether ($ETH) and the broader crypto market given how the asset lessons have a tendency to correlate.

The macro strategist acknowledged that the Iran ceasefire meant “the bottom is in” for the inventory market, and that a demolish above the S&P 500’s 200-day transferring common at 6,617 would residing off “a decisive dawdle increased,” in a CNBC look on Wednesday.

E-mini futures were already shopping and selling at 6,820 by Thursday morning, effectively past his residing off.

Lee’s framework rests on two aspects. First, stocks rose from mid-March by early April even as oil climbed from $87 to $116 and the war escalated. The S&P 500 moved from 6,300 to 6,600 whereas situations were getting worse, that manner equities were provocative war possibility without breaking.

Second, the ceasefire is what he calls a “clear rate of change inflection.” Even supposing the truce is no longer definitive, the shift from escalation to de-escalation produced a 2.5% fairness rally, a 15% oil demolish, and VIX below 20 in a single session.

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are whisper beneficiaries of a bottom in equities.

$BTC‘s surge past $72,000 late on Wednesday came alongside S&P 500 futures jumping 1.9%. Every fundamental possibility-on dawdle since the war began has been a unsuitable-asset change the put aside stocks, metals and crypto dawdle in live performance on the equal geopolitical catalyst.

A sustained fairness recovery does not moral wait on crypto sentiment, but eliminates the macro headwind that has kept bitcoin pinned in a $65,000 to $73,000 differ for six weeks.

The onchain setup helps the timing. Bitcoin’s realized price sits at $54,286, 21% below its space price, the closest manner to the metric that historically defines cycle bottoms out of doors of outright crashes.

The Awe and Greed Index spent the past month in single digits, the most bearish sustained reading since the 2022 bottom. ETF inflows held at roughly 50,000 $BTC per month by March no topic the intense sentiment, as CoinDesk reported.

The bull case has extra legs for ether ($ETH) particularly. The Ethereum Foundation done its 70,000 $ETH staking goal closing week, putting $143 million to work producing yield in desire to promoting into the market, a shift the neighborhood had demanded for years.

Dwelling ether ETF flows flipped clear on Monday with $120 million in inflows, the ideal since mid-March. And network fundamentals round tokenization and agentic AI infrastructure continue to plan no topic price action.

Tom Lee is additionally chairman of Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), the ideal company ether holder on earth with 4.8 million $ETH rate roughly $10 billion. Bitmine offered 71,252 $ETH closing week, its greatest single-week aquire since December 2025, and is actively focusing on 5% of total ether provide. Every proportion point of ether appreciation provides roughly $100 million to the corporate’s treasury.

Lee would possibly maybe well well effectively be proper referring to the bottom, but he additionally has one of many ideal monetary incentives within the industry for the market to agree with him.

That test comes snappy, however. Iran’s parliament acknowledged late Wednesday that three clauses of the ceasefire indulge in already been breached. The Strait of Hormuz stays effectively closed, and oil rebounded 2% to $97 on Thursday after Wednesday’s 15% fall.

If the truce unravels, the bottom name unravels with it and both equities and crypto retest the lows.