A new market-cap–based fully Elliott Wave leer from fair chartist Quantum Ascend (@quantum_ascend) argues that Stellar’s native token XLM is positioned for a fifth-wave attain that would lift its valuation roughly 5x from right here. In a video published on September 10, the analyst says he prefers to mannequin market cap somewhat than the dollar label because XLM’s present dynamics have periodically distorted pickle-label returns.
Stellar (XLM) Home To Explode 400%
“ this… the USD label is most effective up 12,000% while the market cap chart [is] up 52,000%. So… there is a few make of inflationary stress on the asset… Stellar, we now have got to use the market cap chart to measure out exactly the attach the worth is gonna skedaddle,” he acknowledged, before mapping Fibonacci extensions on the monthly and weekly time frames.
From a cycle that he dates to Could perchance honest 2016, the analyst counts 5 waves up into the January 2018 peak, 5 down into March 2020, and then a new, ongoing motive development that has already printed waves one via four, with wave four “carried out in April of this year.”
He highlights an “88% week” in July that he interprets as phase of the transition into the terminal wave. The crux of his name comes from overlapping Fibonacci projections: measuring the third-to-fourth-wave drawdown and the elevated 2021 vary, he finds confluence shut to the three.618 extension, which locations XLM’s fully diluted valuation zone between roughly $60 billion and $71 billion. “My fundamental there is going to be $60 billion on the market cap… might per chance well well glimpse a throw over there to that $71 [billion] to boot,” he acknowledged.
Translating capitalization correct into a notional label direction, Quantum Ascend frames a well-known label aim round $1.96 per XLM—with a more aggressive extension shut to $2.28—while emphasizing adherence to Elliott Wave proportionality: “We’re having a study at 400% or a 5X… everyone’s going to be screaming for $2; it’s going to raze up at devour $1.96… but every other reason that makes sense is that the third wave cannot be the shortest… I maintain in actual fact real about that focal point on real there.” The analyst also notes that a rapid, internally impulsive sub-development is believable for the fifth wave (“might per chance well well glimpse 5 waves in this fifth wave right here somewhat instant”), given the asset’s historical previous of condensed strikes.
As of 11th of September, 2025, XLM changes hands round $0.386 with a market capitalization shut to $12.28 billion, per CoinMarketCap. A switch to the analyst’s $60 billion fundamental target would point out an appreciation on the direct of ~4.9x from this day’s valuation, with the categorical dollar label contingent on circulating-present prerequisites at the time of arrival.
Present mechanics are a key backdrop to his market-cap emphasis. In November 2019, the Stellar Pattern Foundation (SDF) diminished entire XLM present to ~50 billion via a 55 billion token burn; since then, no new lumens are created at the protocol stage, although circulating present has persevered to adapt as SDF distributes treasury holdings over time. This helps point out why lengthy-horizon market-cap curves can diverge from easy label charts, critically when comparing epochs with various circulating float.
If realized, a well-known target shut to $1.96 would residence a new all-time excessive for XLM, exceeding the $0.938 peak recorded on January 4, 2018. That historical marker is expounded because, in Elliott terms, structurally new highs most frequently validate the completion of a cycle’s terminal wave—although the analyst himself ties confirmation to the unfolding of the interior wave development somewhat than to a single label print.
To make certain, Elliott counting and Fibonacci confluence are interpretive frameworks, no longer certainties. Macro liquidity, the direction of Bitcoin dominance, and idiosyncratic issuance/distribution by gargantuan holders can all alter trajectories and timing. Soundless, for believers in cycle symmetry, Quantum Ascend’s case is easy: a excessive-time-timeframe fifth wave for XLM, projected at roughly $60 billion in market cap, equating to about a 400% rally from new ranges—“real unnerved of $2” on label.
